Election latest: Labour on course for landslide if polls are correct, minister acknowledges (2024)

Former home secretary Suella Braverman has told the Conservatives to "read the writing on the wall" and prepare for the "reality and frustration" of losing the election.

Poll after poll is now suggesting the Labour Party is expected to win a large majority in parliament, with the Sky News poll of polls putting Sir Keir 19 points ahead this morning.

An average of all polls with fieldwork completed during the seven days to 2 July puts Labour on 40%, 19 points ahead of the Conservatives on 21%, followed by Reform on 16%, the Lib Dems on 11% and the Greens on 6%.

And Rishi Sunak has repeatedly been warning of a Labour "supermajority", appearing to concede himself that his party may not win.

Speaking to the Telegraph, Ms Braverman said victory should no longer be the ambition for the Tories.

She added: "Thursday's vote is now all about forming a strong enough opposition.

"One needs to read the writing on the wall: it's over, and we need to prepare for the reality and frustration of opposition."

Pat McFadden, Labour's national campaign co-ordinator, tells Sky News that it is "disrespectful" for the Conservatives to call the outcome of the election before polling day.

Earlier, Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride said "we know what the result is going to be if the polls are right - we know it's going to be a Labour landslide".

And Rishi Sunak has repeatedly warned of a Labour "supermajority", urging the British public to make sure the Conservatives keep enough seats to challenge a potential Labour government.

But Mr McFadden rejects the idea that the race is won.

He says: "No it's not all over, I think lots of voters have still got to make up their mind.

"I've been reflecting on the Conservative messages about us, I think it was exactly two months ago today when I sat in this studio and people were quoting Rishi Sunak to me after the local elections saying the real problem is Labour can't get a majority.

"Fast forward two months, and now they're trying to say something else.

"I think it's disrespectful to the electorate to call the outcome of an election before people have gone to the polls.

"It's in the voters' hands."

By Jason Farrell, home editor

The Adventure Bike Rider Festival in Warwickshire is Glastonbury on Wheels.

Fields on the beautiful Ragley Hall estate are full of tents and motorcycles, where the sound of rumbling exhausts mix with pumping music from tribute rock bands on the main stage.

We've come here on our last stop of Bench Across Britain, where we've been testing the mood of the nation ahead of thegeneral electionby sitting people on a green commons seat and asking them to share their thoughts.

This is our last stop, and what we find is an electorate that is still uncertain, still hard to read, as polling day is almost upon us.

We park our parliamentary bench amid gleaming chrome BSA bikes where retired IT professional Richard Bellis sits down with his friend, former firefighter, Darren Higginson.

What unfolds is a conversation that will make pollsters shudder.

The first big moment of election night this Thursday is the exit poll.

It'll provide us with our first major insight into the result.

Our political correspondent Serena Barker-Singh explains all you need to know:

Rishi Sunak has been warning of a Labour "supermajority" for weeks, without explaining exactly what it means.

What's the PM getting at?

"Supermajority" is being used by Mr Sunak to refer to the scale of the Labour victory being projected by many pollsters - with some saying they could top the 419 seats won by Tony Blair in 1997.

That gave Labour a majority of 179, but with the Tories tipped to do even worse than they did back then (165 seats), Sir Keir Starmer could end up enjoying the biggest parliamentary advantage on record.

Mr Sunak has said such a "supermajority" would make it harder for the Labour Party to be held to account in the Commons.

Is he right to sound the alarm?

Well, no - because the concept of a supermajority is meaningless in British democracy.

It's a familiar phrase in US politics, where a supermajority of two-thirds really does matter in some votes.

For example, Congress is required for particularly significant legislation like impeaching a president to hit that two-thirds threshold.

In the UK, a governing party only has to hold more than half of the 650 seats in the Commons, whether that be 326 or much more.

A majority of one could be just as effective as something much bigger - as long as the majority party keeps its MPs in line.

Some have argued the "supermajority" concept isn't without merit, for example in referendums, but it's certainly not relevant to this election despite the Tories' best efforts to make it so.

Whether it's healthy for parliament to be as dominated by one party as it could be from 5 July is another question - but whatever the majority Labour might have, there'll be nothing super about it.

Mel Stride, the work and pensions secretary, is now joining Sky News for - by our count - the seventh time since the general election campaign began.

The minister warns in his initial answers about what a Labour government could mean.

Presenter Matt Barbetthen asks: "When was it decided that, with a 14-year record, the politics of fear - trying to make people afraid of what comes next - was the best tactic?"

In the last week, Rishi Sunak has repeatedly warned of a Labour "supermajority", urging the British public to make sure the Conservatives keep enough seats to challenge a potential Labour government.

Mr Stride says the Conservatives are pushing a "very positive message" about what the party has achieved in the last decade.

"But it's also right that we make it very clear what the alternative is - and the alternative is much higher taxes under the Labour Party."

This is something that Labour has rejected, claiming repeatedly that every pledge made in its manifesto is fully costed.

Mr Stride says: "It's not a by-election tomorrow, we know what the result is going to be if the polls are right - we know it's going to be a Labour landslide.

"But think about having a party in there that is going to be able to oppose some of the things that this government does when the shine has worn off in six months' time."

Matt Barbetasks why the Conservatives can't be positive about a 14-year record. He points to a lack of growth in wages as one example of the standards of living failing to rise.

"I think we do have a positive story to tell," Mr Stride says.

So what is the minister most proud of in his career?

"I've supported pensioners by making sure that we've found the resources to put pensions up by about 10%," he explains.

"I'm proud of the fact that 200,000 fewer pensioners are in poverty now since the last Labour government."

Away from the election campaign, and former DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson is facing further sex offence charges, bringing the total to 18.

The Northern Ireland politician has been charged with seven more offences after the Public Prosecution Service (PPS) reviewed the police evidence, as is the normal practice.

When he appeared in court in April, the ex-MP was accused of 11 sex offences.

He denies all allegations.

His wife, Lady Eleanor Donaldson, 58, was facing four charges including aiding and abetting him and will now face five.

The offences are alleged to have taken place between 1985 and 2006 and involve two alleged victims.

The couple were released on bail after appearing at Newry Magistrates Court in Co Down on 24 April.

You can read more from our political reporter Alix Culbertson below:

Former Labour adviser Ayesha Hazarika is back with Beth and Ruth for the last few days of the election campaign.

On this episode they discuss how Beth is preparing for election night, what constituencies to look out for and election night snacks.

They also discuss the final days of campaigning and why theTories are attacking Keir Starmer for suggesting he willfinish work at 6pm on aFridaynight if he becomes prime minister.

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Email Beth, Ruth, and Ayesha at electoraldysfunction@sky.uk, post on X to @BethRigby, or send a WhatsApp voice note on 07934 200 444.

Finally, after six long weeks, the final 24 hours of campaigning is upon us. Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer will be dashing around the country as they make their final pitch to voters.

The prime minister, who may well be out of that job in less than 48 hours, will be sticking to Tory territory in Hampshire and the South East.

The man who is looking almost certain to replace him - Sir Keir - will be touring the three nations of the UK where he is fielding candidates, as he begins the journey to Number 10 via Wales, Scotland and England.

In the Labour camp, they are still intent on turning out the vote and assuming nothing.

One insider suggests to me there are still, as polling day arrives, 60-70 seats which are a "toss up and could go either way".

But there is a quiet admission too that, after four election defeats on the bounce, Labour's time has finally come.

Our live poll tracker collates the results of opinion surveys carried out by all the main polling organisations - and allows you to see how the political parties are performing in the run-up to the general election.

With just 24 hours to go, the Tories and Labour have taken a drop, while support for Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats is on the rise.

Read more about the trackerhere.